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Johan Santana was one of the best left handed starting pitchers the game of baseball has seen in recent memory. He finished in the top 5 of Cy Young voting in 5 consecutive seasons ranging from 2004 to 2008, including winning the AL Cy in 2004 and 2006. Santana's change-up is legendary, and the Twins were never more fun to watch than when he was punching out batters left and right. But, that was then.
Snap back to reality. Johan Santana hasn't pitched in over a full year. He missed the entire 2011 season, and all of last season after receiving a second surgery on his left, throwing shoulder. In between those points he pitched 21 games in 2012 to the tune of a 4.85 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP, both the highest he has ever recorded since being made a starter in 2002. Now, Johan has overcame injury before to be great, but can he do it again? especially at the age of 35?
The main issue, sure to present itself here is price. Other teams are also showing interest in Johan obviously because, as there is a ton of risk there is also huge possible reward. Earlier today I was reading through a well written series of Mock Winter Meetings on twinkietown.com. In the Mock Winter Meetings each team had a writer that represented their respective teams, and in 4 days made an entire offseason's worth of signings, trades, and the whole sha-bang. Now in those mock meetings the Twins representative signed Johan Santana to a Minor-League contract. Seriously? I know it's a mock, "fantasy-like" exhibition, but let's try and be the slightest bit realistic (He also signed Justin Morneau to a Minor-League deal). Johan's price is going to be way down this season from the $25 million he made last year, but you could amputate his left arm and somebody would still through more than half-a-million-bucks at him.
Realistically, I don't like the idea of signing Johan at all. I love him and can't say enough about how awesome, and how dominate he was toeing the Metrodome rubber in past seasons. But, the chances of him being that same pitcher again are slim to none. I'd expect Johan to see one year offers of around $8 million, with incentives that could end up equaling much more. At that price, I feel like there are many more realistic options available. But, that is only if those options are still available. If the Twins twiddle their thumbs for too long this offseason and it comes down to either eating $15 million of payroll, or throwing a little too much dough at this old hero, by all means throw away!
I mean, I can't say that I wouldn't be excited as hell to dig my old 57 jersey out of the closet!
Remember, Johan should have won the 2005 AL Cy Young Award too, but Bartolo Colon had more "wins."
ReplyDeleteI actually like Johan as a potential target. He wouldn't EVER be the same Johan, so hopefully fans would be able to temper their expectations. But he's not a lost cause. Even the Mets aren't really giving up on his "talent," they are just in rebuilding mode and clearing payroll and don't see Johan as worth the $18 million difference between his 2014 salary and his buyout price.
Shoulder injuries are sometimes tougher to come back from then elbow injuries. I actually think Johan will be had for far less than 7-8 million. I think missing two seasons, having two shoulder surgeries on his throwing shoulder, put him in Rich Harden territory. Despite his past accolades.
I'd sign him. He's been quoted recently saying he "still loves Minnesota." That tells me he's considered a return.
He'd be dumpster-diving for sure, but as long as we grab two other top tier arms, I would be all for a return.