5 Free Agent Starting Pitchers the Twins should target for 2014

As I promised, I dug a little deeper into my list of starting pitchers set to become Free Agents this offseason. I eliminated most pitchers with club options for 2014 (with the exception of Ubaldo Jiminez and a few others) as they will likely be exercised. This labels two of the most intriguing options here, James Shields and Jon Lester, as untouchable. Regardless, I was able to weed through plenty of others and was able to come up with a handful of great talent that could truly make the 2014 Twins pitching staff a horse of a different color. Here we go.

1.) Ervin Santana

His last name alone is intriguing to Twins fans! Can you imagine another Santana, sporting a mid 50s jersey number, dominating the rubber while fitted in Twins pinstripes?! Santana was obviously electrifying last season sporting a 3.24 ERA over 32 starts and 211 Innings Pitched. He had a WHIP of only 1.142, struck out 7 per 9 innings pitched, and walked only 2 also per 9 innings. The right-hander does show some small doubt and inconsistency over his career. In 8 mostly solid seasons with the Angels, Santana mixed in 3 rough years with an end of the season ERA greater than 5 (2007,2009, and 2012). The period of inconsistency in 2012, however, is an island among an ocean of success in recent years and was due mostly to an outlying amount of home runs allowed. I don't see a situation like this reoccurring in Santana's future (especially if he would be pitching half of his games at the pitcher friendly Target Field). Another factor that erases any sort of Santana "Red Flag" is his success pitching against AL Central Division opponents. His first season in Kansas City was his first away from LA and was statistically the most efficient of his career. In 10 starts against AL Central opponents in 2013 (including the Twins) Santana sported a 1.98 ERA, a 0.867 WHIP, held opponents to a batting average of .187 and struck out more than 8 per 9 innings. Ervin Santana will likely be looking for a more long-term deal this off-season and will come at a hefty price, but one the Twins could afford and could benefit greatly from.



2.) Matt Garza

Another sight for sore eyes, would be this guy back in a Twins jersey. In one of the worst trades the Twins have made in a long time, we sent this guy and Jason Bartlett to Tampa Bay for Brendan Harris and Delmon Young (neither of whom made a lasting impression in Minnesota). Since that trade Garza has posted an ERA lower than 3.98 and a WHIP lower than 1.262  in all six of his seasons with the Rays, Cubs, and Rangers. Garza has outstanding stuff and as excited as the Rangers were to have him last season, they aren't near as excited at the idea of retaining him next year after a few hiccups at the end of last season. This means Garza will be very available, but will draw tons of interest and will not be cheap. He's a low risk/high reward guy that would be well worth the investment for Minnesota, even a decently long term one.



3.) Dan Haren

This pick comes with a little bias. I've wanted to see Dan Haren as a Minnesota Twin since he made his first big splash in the Majors. And yes, some of that longing and Haren's early effectiveness makes this somewhat of a "homer pick." I really do, however, think that the more recent Dan Haren is still very valuable in a different skin, and should be a name the Twins take a serious look at this offseason. Haren cost a lot lost year, and a lot more before that, but after two mediocre to average seasons his stock is starting to fall, and potential suitors could see a few dollars knocked off his asking price. As a whole, Haren's stats last year don't look too sexy, but his progression throughout the year does. Haren steadily improved all season and actually showed more glimpses than not of his old self in the second half of 2013. In that second half Haren posted a 3.52 ERA, a 1.017 WHIP, and an opponents batting average of .226 in 13 starts. And even further, Haren posted a 2.89 ERA in his last 5 starts of 2013! He still carries some dominant stuff in his arsenal and does an excellent job locating every pitch (he has a career 1.9 BB/9 inn and 7.6 K/9 inn). If that isn't enough for you, Haren has had a healthy and consistent workload throwing 584 innings in the last 3 seasons and has posted a 2.93 ERA in 17 starts against AL Central opponents (NOT including the Twins) in that same time period.



4.) Phil Hughes

I do not think that Phil Hughes could or will be the ace of any pitching staff anytime soon. I do think he is a lot more talented than he has shown over the more recent part of his career. He is a good, young, middle-of-the-rotation type of pitcher stuck in an inopportune position. A predominantly fly-ball pitcher stuck in the confines of homer happy Yankee Stadium, Hughes posted a 6.32 ERA and allowed 17 Home Runs in 17 starts at Yankee Stadium last season. This opposed to a 3.88 ERA and 7 Homers allowed in 13 starts away from the park he called home in 2013. This holds true for his career as well. Hughes has allowed 76 career homers at Yankee Stadium in 95 starts, and only 36 homers away from it in 87 career starts. Hughes is only 28 years old and has a lot of career left. But, with his stock beginning to fall he could really use a change of scenery. The Minnesota Twins and pitcher friendly Target Field would gladly welcome him in 2014.



5.) Jeff Karstens

After missing the entire 2013 season and having surgery on his Rotator Cuff and Labrum, Jeff Karstens will be available for next to nothing this offseason, but could prove to be worth much more than that. Karstens was highly touted in the Pirates organization as early as three years ago. In 2011 Karstens had a 3.43 ERA, a 1.209 WHIP, and walked only 1.7 batters per 9 innings pitched in 26 starts. In 2012 he saw 15 starts and turned in a 3.89 ERA, a 1.176 WHIP, and improved his control even further walking only 1.6 per 9 innings. Shoulder surgery is difficult for a Major Leage pitcher to overcome. but Karstens is expected to be ready to go by Spring Training 2014. The competition for Karstens will not be thick, and a Minor League contract offer could be enough to bag a starter that has already proved to be worth much more than that in the past. A risk is obviously present, but at the specified price it's one worth taking for the Twins.



Dark Horses
Scott Kazmir: an experienced lefty that has shown greatness in the past, and effectiveness last season. He should come at a relatively cheap price and heck, if the Twins sign him just to keep him from pitching against them it might be worth it. In 5 starts against Minnesota last year Kazmir was 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA, recording 36 Strikeouts over 31 Innings!

Paul Maholm: the left-handed version of Kevin Correia

2014 Potential Free Agent Starting Pitchers

This season's World Series is nearing its close with Boston leading the Cardinals 3 games to 2 and heading back to, home sweet home, Fenway Park. That means that Free Agent season is right around the corner. In my past posts I've underlined one of the Twins major problems over the last few years as its lack of effort and success in the Free Agency market. It is extremely important to build a good strong foundation at Minor League Affiliates, and I truly believe in some of the talent the Target Field pitching mound could see in a couple of seasons. However, I also fully believe the Twins could put an AL Central Division Champion roster on the field in 2014!

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Every area of the organization could use some work, but the major area of importance and need is at starting pitching. The Twins Starters last season combined for only 871 Innings Pitched, a 5.26 ERA, and an opponents batting average of .305! All ranking worst in the MLB by relatively large margins(The next worst Starter ERA was 4.81 and the next worst opponents average was .281!). There are a couple of promising pitching prospects in the Twins' farm system, but as mentioned before, most are more than a full season away from making an appearance in the big leagues. 

At first glance this offseason's crop of Free Agent pitching looks somewhat old and undesirable. But dig a little deeper, and you can truly find some much needed gems. Below, I created a chart to show every potential 2014 Free Agent starting pitcher(that was worth mentioning) with a few credentials to accompany them. Within this list I can find a number of both Short and Longer Term solutions to a Twins starting rotation that is nearing desperation. (my rhymes are sick)

A (*) following the name of a listed player indicates a vesting, mutual, or team option in place that could potentially bring that player back to its current team in 2014. Players are listed in order of their 2013 salary from highest to lowest. Accompanying them is their age, the team they played for in 2013, their Innings Pitched, ERA, WHIP, and Quality Start Percentage totals for the 2013 season. For those unaware, a Quality Start is one in which the pitcher throws for 6 or more innings and allows 3 or less earned runs. The Quality Start Percentage divides the number of Quality Starts by the total number of starts made by the pitcher. The column titled "Stock" gives an estimation showing whether that players stock among the rest of the league has gone Up, Down, or stayed relatively the same. This rating, along with each player's past salary could give teams a rough estimation of what the player's true cost this offseason could be. 

If the price is right, their are plenty of great pitching options available to the Major League public this offseason. And, with roughly, only over $50 million in committed payroll for 2014, the Minnesota Twins have the opportunity to make a pretty big splash in the upcoming Free Agent market. In my upcoming few posts I'll look to cover a handful of potential starters on this list that I believe would look great in a Minnesota Twins jersey next year. And, further down the line, will look at another handful of potential position players that could add to the Twins' lineup depth. 

What the 2013 Minnesota Twins could have looked like

I remember watching this year's All Star Game in New York and thinking to myself, "JEESH there are a lot of former Twins here!" Every time I would scroll through the league leaders in statistics I would catch myself saying, "I remember that guy!". And, once again this postseason I've seen David Ortiz dominating opposing pitchers in the World Series, looking to rejoin far too many former Twins in the World Champion's club.

I mentioned in my last post that I was looking forward to covering the Twins' historical trade and free agency woes and a very flawed mindset they have when it comes to the two. That post, is this post. Now I know that hindsight is always 20/20, but after several on top of several mistakes, being accompanied by only a small handful of triumphs, I would think that something would start sinking in. Whether it be for the purpose of seeking younger prospects with future potential greatness, the unwillingness to pay a player the amount of money they're seeking, the idiotic explanation of a player not matching the current system in place, or just a complete misunderstanding of player value, the Minnesota Twins have let a small army of superstars out into the baseball world to find other places of employment. So many in fact, I constructed two charts below to show the team's notable trade and free agency history over the past 10 years (listed in no particular order). Also note that a player name highlighted in red indicates that player is still on the Twins' current roster.

Remember those guys? Its almost kind of shocking when you take a closer look at the caliber of players the organization has let go and compare them to the players it has welcomed aboard ship. Also shocking is the amount of players traded for and signed that were shortly after given up on and re-traded away or let go to free agency. (Note: Deolis Guerra remains in the Twins organization but is not highlighted in red. He pitched 3 games for the team's rookie affiliate in 2013.) Only one trade, where AJ Piersynski was sent to San Francisco in exchange for Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan, provided the organization with any sustained success whatsoever. And, the free agent signings are for the most part, almost laughable. When looking at all the opportunity squandered and all the talent above, I got to thinking, "You can almost make an All-Star Team out of this group!" So I did. Below I produced a table that combines a number of these players above that were sent away by the Twins, with a handful of current Twins to produce an optimal "What could have been" 2013 Minnesota Twins lineup. Just to put everything into perspective.

That's right. 9 All-Stars. The 2nd highest Team Batting Average and Slugging Percentage in the AL, and the 3rd highest On-Base Percentage. 2nd lowest Team ERA, 3rd lowest Team WHIP, and the fewest BB/9 in the AL. And more than likely, a team that would still be battling deep into the postseason. You'll notice that a realistic and move-sensitive roster is put together here. For example, both Carlos Gomez and JJ Hardy could not be placed on this team as, although they were both former Twins, the two were traded for each other, and could never realistically played on the same team. The amount of Games played by hitters equals 165.6 which very closely compares to the 162 game season the team would play. And, the 5,513 At-Bats and 6076 Plate Appearances further prove that this lineup would be fully plausible. Again, the Games Started total of 165 coming from the 5 starting pitchers and 1 spot-starter, Sam Deduno, closely relates to the 162 game season and the 1427 total Innings Pitched is also extremely comparable to the actual Innings Pitched totals from teams around the league. Also something that I found surprising, the optimal team's total payroll equals $141,054,339. This total seems substantial to what Twins fans are used to, and is almost double the amount of the teams actual 2013 payroll of roughly $76,012,500. However, the $141 million payroll would still rank outside the top 5 highest payrolls in the League, it would still be roughly $87 million less than what the 2013 New York Yankees paid their roster, and it would really only be one major "max-like" contract above the Twins 2011 payroll of $112,737,000 just 2 years ago!

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Yes, Captain Hindsight is always right, but hopefully if information like this can do anything, it can show the Twins exactly what its past mistakes have been and the exact failures they have resulted in. The organization needs to reevaluate its determination of player value and overall talent, and needs to eliminate any fear of spending too much money. With this off-season's player departures, the Team can easily afford to spend $60 million in the upcoming free agent game. Mistakes are okay as long as they are used as learning opportunities and changes are then made. Hopefully this Twins Organization can take the necessary steps to turn our, What could have been's into present and future success.

Brian Dozier: A Current and Future Bright Spot

Let's be honest, this past season was a complete disaster for Twins fans. It's never a positive sign when the top off-season headline concerning an organization is whether or not to fire its manager. When I was originally developing this blog I went to google's image search to try and find a few pictures I could use within my posts. Things are so gloomy right now that when I searched for "Twins Celebrating" I had to cycle through roughly 5 pages before I found an image that wasn't of a birthday party for young identical twin siblings, or of something meant only for eyes 18 years or older. Yeah times are rough right now. However, as the overall season was an utter failure again, not everything about this years' team followed suit. Two major Minnesota Twin bright spots stood out this season as something to be proud of and something to look forward to. The first, was the tremendous, year-long performance by a young and relatively inexpensive Twins bullpen. The second, was Second Basemen Brian Dozier.

As the season progressed and the Twins continued to fall further and further behind in the standings, Brian Dozier began to climb the rankings in nearly every statistical category. He gave a quiet and mostly unproductive lineup a little shred of light each game. In fact, its hard to argue there was a better second basemen in the American League the second half of the 2013 season. Dozier lagged behind in the more popular measures of success among players, batting average and on-base percentage, but still reached a very content .253 and .313 respectively. Dozier was able to express his tremendous value to the team in several other areas, with probably the most prevalent area being power. Following last year's All Star Game, Dozier led all American League second basemen in Home Runs, Extra-Base Hits and Isolated Power, he ranked 2nd during the same time frame in Total Bases, Doubles, and Slugging Percentage, and also had the 3rd most RBI. Dozier's power surge was a sight for sore eyes among Twins fans last season, but also came as a surprise to most. Many people close to the game seemed quick to say "Where is this coming from?!" and failed to acknowledge that 2013 was the 26 year-old's first full season in the big leagues. Trust me, Dozier's power, and more importantly his overall value to the Minnesota Twins is very real and something that I hope to see in years to come.

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Quite frankly, as a Twins fan, I am sick and tired of the word "potential". I have seen far too many quality players sent off to different organizations to make room for young prospects with great "potential". I look forward to covering this entire issue in a future post, but currently want to narrow my efforts. I fear that Brian Dozier is one of those quality players, and that Twins second base prospect Eddie Rosario is one of those youngsters dangerously smothered in that three syllable word, potential. Don't get me wrong, Rosario is already a very talented second basemen, with enough (cringe) potential to be considered very valuable. He can hit for average and power, to all parts of the field, and has great speed. But Dozier has already surpassed the point of potential, and has now proved that he is truly capable of becoming one of the most valuable second basemen in baseball, and in a very underrated fashion. Some teams need Robinson Cano at second base, the Twins need Brian Dozier and a lot of starting pitching. In Eddie Rosario, I see a great opportunity to have both. Instead of always being that team that trades talent for potential, Lets try the other side for once! Think of it this way; Brian Dozier is a hundred dollar bill, and Eddie Rosario is a twenty dollar savings bond. There's a serious chance that in the future that savings bond could be worth more than 100 bucks, but its going to take a long damn time, it might not even get there, and if it does get there it likely won't end up being worth very much more anyway. And now what if I said that you could trade that savings bond to a savvy investor for another hundred dollar bill!? One that can pitch!

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All analogies aside, Brian Dozier is a great player. Still only 26 years old, Dozier established himself last season as a serious talent at second base. He is patient, seeing 4.17 pitches per plate appearance in 2013, ranking 2nd in the AL among second basemen. He has great power, hitting 18 home runs and 55 extra base hits last year, both also ranking 2nd among AL second basemen. He pummels left-handed pitching, batting .324 in 2013 and leading all AL second basemen in Slugging percentage and .OPS. He is clutch when it counts, batting .315 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs, also ranking 2nd in the AL among second basemen. And, something that I have ridiculously failed to mention yet, Dozier has arguably the best glove at second base in the Majors. He finished 2013 with only 6 errors, a fielding percentage of .992, and led the entire position in Assists, Total Chances, and Range Factor. So yes, on top of everything else, he's a gold glove waiting to happen. The Twins have second base covered, and if Eddie Rosario is not dealt to a new organization in exchange for an improvement in starting pitching this off-season upper management will be making a large mistake. Minnesota already has a future at second base, Brian Dozier.