Bronson Arroyo to the Minnesota Twins?

Man I hope so! A couple weeks back, Bronson Arroyo failed to make my top 5 list of free agent pitchers the Twins should target. However, had I known the contracts sought by the likes of Ervin Santana and Matt Garza back then, Arroyo undoubtedly would have made my radar. Hearing a report that the Twins are even coming close to offering a deal to this veteran has me feeling like a kid on Christmas Eve.

Arroyo is arguably THE most consistent starting pitcher in all of baseball, with a thoroughbred, rubber arm. He hasn't started less than 30 games or thrown less than 199 innings in a season since 2005! 57% of his career starts have been Quality Starts, and 69% of his starts were Quality Starts last season. He has a 4.19 ERA, a WHIP of 1.292, and has only walked 2.5 per 9 innings pitched over the course of his career, and yet somehow, at 36 years old seems to be in the prime of his career.

Over the last 2 seasons, Arroyo has thrown 404 innings over 64 starts, to the tune of a 3.76 ERA. He has even further increased his accuracy and done more to keep opponents contact down as well, recording a WHIP of only 1.181, walking only 1.5 per 9 innings, and punching out a solid 5.6 batters per 9 over the same time period!

Arroyo's only real downfall as a pitcher comes in being occasionally susceptible to the long ball. He allowed 32 Homers last season, and as many as 46 a few years ago in 2011. These numbers, however, would likely be kept to a minimum and prove to be a non factor if Arroyo were to pitch half of his games in the pitcher friendly confines of Target Field.

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Josh Willingham's 3 year, $21 million deal before the 2012 season was the largest free agent contract the Minnesota Twins have ever issued. Arroyo is slated to receive roughly a 2 or 3 year deal worth $10 to $13 million per year, and would easily take over that spot in Twins history. A signing of this magnitude would set a tone for the entire Minnesota Twins organization, one that says, "We're in this thing! We're not going to wait around and hope to be a better team in the future. We're making it happen right now!" Arroyo would be an outstanding fit in one of the top 3 slots of Minnesota's 2014 starting rotation and at his price he won't be the only new addition to the pitching staff next season. If even a likely maximum of $13 million is offered to Arroyo, that still leaves roughly $27 million to $37 million to throw at one or two more high quality starting pitchers this offseason, or provides more leverage to sign a quality bat while working the trading block for a pitcher!

I apologize for the excessive use of explanation points in this post, but I couldn't be more excited for the coming weeks, and the 2014 season to follow! Go Twins!

Possible Twins Catcher options in 2014

The recent decision to move Joe Mauer permanently from behind the plate to first base opens up another decision that, up until a couple seasons ago, the Minnesota Twins thought they wouldn't have to make for a very long time. Who's gonna catch? With Mauer filling the void left at first base by Justin Morneau's departure, a new face is needed behind a mask and behind home plate at Target Field. So, who are the possible suitors for the spot, and which one is the best fit?


Option 1.) Ryan Doumit

Overall, Doumit had a very disappointing 2013 season, and it comes pretty uncharacteristically when compared to the rest of his career. Fairly consistent, Doumit has a career line of .268/.329/.438 and should look to have a bounce-back campaign in 2014. Doumit, for the just over $3 million he receives per year, is very valuable and underrated to the Twins. A switch hitter, with middle of the lineup power, the 32 year old Doumit can also play up to 5 different positions on the field. He has a lot of experience catching, and has done so for the majority of his career. Last season Doumit caught 43 games for the Twins, and 57 games in both 2012 and 2011, for the Twins and Pirates respectively. In that 3 year span, Doumit has seen a boost in his offensive production when he is penciled in behind the plate as well. His .339 OBP and .451 slugging percentage at catcher are higher than at any other position, and his .285 batting average at catcher is up 14 points from his overall average during the last 3 years. Although Doumit has also experienced some concussion problems of his own and catching might not be an optimal choice for him, the Twins could definitely benefit from an increased amount of Ryan Doumit behind the plate in 2014.



Option 2.) Jarrod Saltalamacchia

The Twins were mentioned as showing interest in Salty as early as 8 hours after their announcement that Joe Mauer would be playing first base in 2014. Saltalamacchia is 28 years old and coming off his best season in the majors, hands down. Some of Salty's great 2013 season is easily forgotten due to his dismal showing in the postseason, but his regular season line of .273/.338/.466 was the best of his career in each category. He also belted 14 Homers in 121 games. Salty's power, along with the fact that he is a switch hitter, and reliable behing the plate are all intriguing factors when considering his value. Not intriguing is the career .246 batting average and .310 on-base percentage, or the fact that the 121 games played figure in 2013 was the highest of Salty's career, and only the second time he's played over 100 games in 7 years of Major League Baseball. I love his personality, and could really see him sporting a Twins jersey behind the plate, but I'm not sure his productivity would be worth the price he may cost in the coming weeks. The Red Sox have reportedly offered Saltalamacchia a 2 year deal worth less than $19 million, but other potential suitors will be getting in the mix for the catcher as well. I see his cost ending up at 3 years and $29 million, far beyond his actual worth.



Option 3.) A.J. Pierzynski 

I don't like this option for one reason; A.J. Pierzynski is an asshole. Every other possible reason you could give for adding him this offseason makes perfect sense, no matter how much I've loved booing A.J. for the last handful of years. A.J. has past ties to the Twins, which is something management seems to look for when making their singing decisions, and he's a 36 year old veteran presence that could really add to the lineup. He will likely attract a 1 year deal between $7.5 and $10 million. A.J, for 16 seasons in the league, has been the perfect picture of consistency. He has a career batting average of .283 (the lowest end of season average he has recorded is .257 and the highest he has recorded is .312), he's played in as few as only 128 games, and as many as 140 games over the past 14 seasons. He hasn't been notoriously known as a power hitter, but has really added a power aspect to his game the last couple seasons, totaling 27 long-balls in 2012, and 17 last season. Defensively, A.J. has always been solid behind the plate, but has had questionable arm-strength. He has seemed to improve this area of his game as well, with a Caught-Stealing percentage of 26% in 2012, and 33% in 2013; both up from 20% in 2011, and both above the league average among catchers. Also, perhaps A.J's fiery sort of leadership could provide a needed spark in Minnesota that has been missing for some time. Maybe A.J. is one of those players that you hate to play against, but you want on your team... Or maybe he's just an asshole.



Option 4.) Josmil Pinto

Josmil Pinto is for real, and has a place in the Twins lineup in both 2014 and the future. The only issue is whether or not the 24 year old has a solid enough defensive game, and enough experience to step into the starting catcher role as early as next spring. This decision is ultimately up to the well trained and experienced coaches on the Minnesota staff. However, I feel that in at least a limited role, Pinto is ready to catch for the Minnesota Twins in 2014. He made as large an impact on the lineup as any call up last season and showed some real promise for a bright future. Pinto was no stranger to success in the Minors. The graph below shows how his production at the plate increased as his experience did while climbing the affiliate ladder.

By 2012, Pinto recorded a minor-league line of .295/.361/.473. By 2013, .309/.400/.482, and then impressively carried his productivity climb into the Majors with a .342/.398/.566 line in 21 games with Minnesota last season. Defensively he obviously has much work to do, but has an entire offseason to focus on. And even still, Pinto had a career Minor-League Caught Stealing percentage of 33%, and in his brief stint up in Minnesota last year threw out 45% of potential base stealers! Pinto's bat is impressive, will continue to improve over the next couple years, and needs to fit into the Twins' lineup somewhere. 

Another possible situation could (and knowing the Twins, likely will) arise in which the likes of Eric Fryer, Chris Hermann, Ryan Doumit, and possibly Josmil Pinto all share significant time as the Twins' catcher in 2014.

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The best case solution that I see presenting itself here, is a starting catcher's role given to Josmil Pinto in Minnesota. Continue to refine his defensive skills this offseason, and if he isn't fully ready for the position all on his own, have Doumit split time behind the plate with him (see Ryan Doumit analysis above). But, make sure Pinto knows the position is his to be had, hopefully now and long into the future!

Joe Mauer's Move to First Base: Good Idea or Great Idea?

Finally! At only 30 years old, finishing his 10th season in the big leagues, Joe Mauer has already established himself as one of the best catchers to ever play the game. His career .323 Batting Average is the highest any qualified catcher has ever recorded in Major League Baseball, dating back to as early as the 1870s. His .405 career On-Base Percentage and his .873 OPS both rank 3rd all-time among catchers, and let's not forget about his defense. Joe has won 3 Gold Gloves behind the plate, and his career .9951 Fielding Percentage ranks 4th all-time among big league catchers. The 6 time All Star and 2009 AL MVP, is also the only catcher in history to win 3 batting titles! There is simply no denying Mauer's greatness behind the plate, but there's also no denying the truth. And honestly, the time for Joe's move from his life-long position has come. Joe has missed more than 15 games in every single one of his 10 seasons in the league do to injury or simple rest, and has recently spent 2 long stints on the DL in 2011 and 2013 due to knee and concussion issues. The idea of a modern day catcher playing the position day in and day out for a 15+ year career is just no longer practical, and the Twins have desperately missed Joe's bat in the lineup, specifically over the last 3 seasons. Nobody can take away from what Joe did behind the plate in 10 years; he was simply amazing as a catcher. But, I think he'll be even better as a First Basemen.

Joe Mauer is a competitor and obviously wanted to continue "doing his thing" behind the plate. But, he is also unselfish and realistic. The most important thing that I read today concerning the move was that it was partly Joe's decision, and one that he made after visits with medical professionals at Minnesota's Mayo Clinic. Moving to a new position takes an enormous amount of physical stress off of Joe and his legs, and could add several years and hundreds of plate appearances to his career. This is obviously in the best interest of Joe's future and the future of the Minnesota Twins. 

The move makes absolute perfect sense to Minnesota for 3 major reasons.

Reason One: the Twins' current void at first base. I apologize for quoting Moneyball again, but "Guys! Right now if a ground ball is hit to first, nobody's gonna be there to stop it from rolling!" How to replace Justin Morneau was one of the biggest offseason questions in the Minnesota clubhouse, moving towards 2014. Moving Mauer to first gives the team a much better solution than any possible internal option, or any possible solution found in the free agent market. It also saves roughly $10 million that can now be spent elsewhere in the Free Agent market, perhaps on the starting pitching rotation.

Reason Two: Joe Mauer is one of the most consistent hitters in the game, and a move like this will have no negative affect what-so-ever on his offensive production. His career line is almost identical to his 55 game split at the first base position. If anything, the move could offer improvement to an already stellar bat in the Minnesota lineup. Mauer's .324 average and .404 OBP already would have topped the rankings among AL First Basemen in 2013, and more rest during the game (by not crouching behind every pitch) means a healthier and stronger Mauer seeing more pitches, in more games. Over his career, Joe's slugging percentage steadily declines from .514 during the month of May, to .451 during the last month of the season, and his home run numbers have been down since putting up 28 in 2009. Look for Mauer to bring some added, and much appreciated power to his new position.

Reason Three: Josmil Pinto. The 24 year old catching prospect dominated AL pitching in a 21 game stint in the big-leagues last season, hitting .342 with 4 Home Runs and 12 RBI. Pinto is the real deal and could very well find himself as the Minnesota Twins opening day pud-sporter in 2014.

I'm sure gonna miss seeing #7 behind the plate, but couldn't be more excited for his many seasons to come!

Alex Meyer: Sometimes the Twins do something right

If you're an avid reader of my blog, you'll remember me highlighting all of the awful trades and free agent moves (or lack thereof) that the Twins have made in recent history. Trading Denard Span for Alex Meyer was not one of them.

Who is Alex Meyer? The top pitching prospect in the Twins' organization, Meyer is only 23 years old, stands 6 feet 9 inches tall, and is covered in talent. He throws a heavy fastball ranging anywhere from 95 to 98 mph and a sharp breaking ball registering in the mid 80s. He, like any young pitching prospect, struggles with control at times, but has a career Minor-League K/9 innings of over 10. He's thrown just over 207 innings of Minor-League ball to the tune of a 2.91 ERA and a 1.162 WHIP, and continues to gain confidence as he gains recognition from the rest of the league.

Meyer participated in this year's Arizona Fall League and has been simply dominant. In his latest outing, pitching against some of the top young prospects in the game, Meyer took a no-hitter into the 6th, striking out 7 batters in 5 and 2/3 innings! The following link will take you to some highlights of that very performance. The video gives you a real up-close and personal look at just how powerful Meyer's stuff is.. http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=31211711&topic_id=7617858.

Over this 3 year stretch of terrible Twins teams, the pitching staff has been reluctantly loaded with inning-eating, pitch to contact, 4th or 5th level starters. I'm hoping Meyer is that strikeout heavy, power-throwing prodigal son, here to set things straight. Don't choose to be average! If you can burn the ball a hitter do it, don't hope that he hits it to a glove somewhere.

Meyer has seen only very minor injury set backs in his young career, and is predicted by several analysts to make his Major League debut sometime in 2014. If that debut comes sooner than later, expect Meyer to hold his own and then some. This is the biggest and most exciting pitching prospect the Twins have had in their system in quite some time. Remember, potential is a scary word, but I fully expect Alex Meyer to solidify his spot in the middle of Minnesota's pitching rotation over the next 2 to 3 seasons.

Welcome back Johan Santana?

The Minnesota Twins have been rumored by several sources to be showing interest in free agent starting pitcher, former 2-time Cy Young winner, and former Twin, Johan Santana. Yes, seriously.

Earlier this offseason the New York Mets declined to pick up an option on Santana that would have paid the lefty over $25 million. Johan was listed near the top of a list of free agent pitchers I posted a couple weeks earlier, but that was merely because the list was organized by 2013 salary. Santana, to me was a complete after thought, and my first reaction to this news was jaw-dropping, stomach aching, disbelief. Then I thought about it some more. And, then I thought again.

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Johan Santana was one of the best left handed starting pitchers the game of baseball has seen in recent memory. He finished in the top 5 of Cy Young voting in 5 consecutive seasons ranging from 2004 to 2008, including winning the AL Cy in 2004 and 2006. Santana's change-up is legendary, and the Twins were never more fun to watch than when he was punching out batters left and right. But, that was then.

Snap back to reality. Johan Santana hasn't pitched in over a full year. He missed the entire 2011 season, and all of last season after receiving a second surgery on his left, throwing shoulder. In between those points he pitched 21 games in 2012 to the tune of a 4.85 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP, both the highest he has ever recorded since being made a starter in 2002. Now, Johan has overcame injury before to be great, but can he do it again? especially at the age of 35?

The main issue, sure to present itself here is price. Other teams are also showing interest in Johan obviously because, as there is a ton of risk there is also huge possible reward. Earlier today I was reading through a well written series of Mock Winter Meetings on twinkietown.com. In the Mock Winter Meetings each team had a writer that represented their respective teams, and in 4 days made an entire offseason's worth of signings, trades, and the whole sha-bang. Now in those mock meetings the Twins representative signed Johan Santana to a Minor-League contract. Seriously? I know it's a mock, "fantasy-like" exhibition, but let's try and be the slightest bit realistic (He also signed Justin Morneau to a Minor-League deal). Johan's price is going to be way down this season from the $25 million he made last year, but you could amputate his left arm and somebody would still through more than half-a-million-bucks at him.

Realistically, I don't like the idea of signing Johan at all. I love him and can't say enough about how awesome, and how dominate he was toeing the Metrodome rubber in past seasons. But, the chances of him being that same pitcher again are slim to none. I'd expect Johan to see one year offers of around $8 million, with incentives that could end up equaling much more. At that price, I feel like there are many more realistic options available. But, that is only if those options are still available. If the Twins twiddle their thumbs for too long this offseason and it comes down to either eating $15 million of payroll, or throwing a little too much dough at this old hero, by all means throw away!

I mean, I can't say that I wouldn't be excited as hell to dig my old 57 jersey out of the closet! 

5 Free Agent Hitters the Twins could target in 2014

So far, all of my offseason efforts have been focused on increasing productivity in the Twins' starting rotation. The rotation is undoubtedly in need of the most improvement and does desire the utmost attention, but is not the only concern the organization has. The lineup also needs some all-around work and a realistic option at first base needs to tracked down. Last season the Twins lineup produced only 614 runs, ranking 25th (out of 30) in the big leagues. To create those runs in 2013, the Twins had a team batting average of .242, an on-base percentage of .312, slugged .380, and hit 151 Home Runs, ranking 25th, 20th, 23rd, and 18th respectively among all MLB teams. Not quite having the "cellar-dweller" stats that the pitching rotation offered up, the lineup needs some more fine tuning and small improvements to try and get these statistical rankings cranked up to the top half of the league.

Former MVP Justin Morneau will be the only hitter that does not return to the Twins' lineup in 2014 which creates a hole in the right side of the infield, and also slightly decreases the available power in the lineup. The void at first base, and the appropriate way to fill the position is a conversation all on its own, and one that I look forward to covering in the future. However, regardless of how the team addresses the first base issue, a number of small, offensive improvements could be made in 2014.

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A lot of the Twins poor performance at the plate last season could be chalked up to inexperience. The team roughly consists of young, inexperienced, "prospect-like" players focused around a few veterans like Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham, and Ryan Doumit. Oswaldo Arcia, Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon, Aaron Hicks, and even Chris Parmalee are all still in the early stages of their careers, and will continue to improve their performance over the next several seasons. If things go as planned, by the time these young players are reaching their full potential they'll be matched up with the likes of prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. The team's inexperience has much more upside than not. In this sense, a number of problems in the lineup will begin to fix themselves through player growth in upcoming seasons.

Outside of inexperience, the veteran guys and main-clogs in the middle of the lineup have been lacking consistency, and are vastly underperforming. Before Justin Morneau was traded to Pittsburgh, he was far from the type of hitter he was prior to his 2010 concussion, and its beginning to seem like he may never be that type of dominant hitter again. Doumit has produced decent numbers but his .247 average last season was down almost 30 points from the season before. and Josh Willingham is coming off a huge disappointment for a season, batting only .208 in 2013! Mauer has been Joe Mauer; consistently awesome at the plate, but was forced to miss nearly half the season due to nagging injuries (this is becoming a trend for the 30 year old catcher).

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Improving the teams pitching staff, specifically the starting rotation, is obviously priority number one. However, with plenty of payroll to spare(even considering potential pitching signings) the organization could also look to throw a few solid bats under its free agent radar this offseason. Now, I'm obviously not saying the team should throw multiple years and $100 million plus at a top 10 free agent hitter like Robinson Cano. However, there are some "middle of the road" type options that could potentially fit very well into Minnesota's current situation. Such as...



1.) James Loney

Loney could likely be a serious contender for filling the Twin's void at first base. Arguably the most underrated and one of the most valuable free agents on this offseason's market, Loney hit .299 last season and logged 158 games at first base for the Rays. When looking at the 29 year-old's career numbers, you'll quickly discover that Loney is as consistent as a big leaguer can be, and consistently solid. By signing Loney, you'll sleep tight knowing exactly what you've got at first base game in and game out. He hasn't played fewer than 144 games since his rookie season 7 years ago, hasn't experienced any sort of injury history in the past, and is very solid defensively, as a true first basemen. Offensively Loney will hit roughly .285, hit 12-15 Homers, and drive in 75-90 runs. And, he only cost Tampa Bay $3 million last season. His price will obviously be up a bit this offseason, but will be well within Minnesota's reach.



2.) Justin Morneau

Sometimes it's just hard to let go. Everybody knows Morneau's story. One of the greatest and most popular Twins of all-time, Justin won the 2006 AL MVP, finished 2nd in the MVP voting in in 2008, and through 81 games of the 2010 season (just 3 years ago!) was well on his way to another MVP season, batting .345 with 18 Homers and 56 RBI (also had a .437 On-Base percentage and a .618 Slugging percentage!). July 7, 2010, Morneau took a knee to the helmet while sliding into 2nd base, trying to break up a double play and suffered a concussion. He didn't play another game in 2010, and since that point has shown only a very small glimmer of the player he once was. Since his return in 2011, Morneau has hit only .256, has an On-Base percentage of only .319, and has hit only 40 Homers in 3 seasons. Last season his long tenure at first base in Minnesota came to an end when he was traded to Pittsburgh during the last year of his contract. He continued his decline and failed to provide much offensive support in Pittsburgh's playoff run in 2013, and the team has shown no interest in resigning Morneau this offseason. Being born in 1990, I spent my teenage years loving Justin, watching him repeatedly dominate opposing hitters, and seeing him traded away was as hard on me as it was anybody. But, I do believe the time had come. Morneau makes this list for only 3 reasons. Reason one: everything I just said. Pre-concussion, Justin was one of the top 5 players in the league at any position. Reason two: 2013 was Morneau's first full season since his injury, meaning he is finally healthy again. Perhaps now that he is again at full strength, he could actually start re-perfecting his game and get back to a shell of his former self. Reason three: Justin will not be a top commodity this offseason. A multi-year contract deal is out of the question, and the best offer Morneau is likely to see is a one or two year deal, worth 7 to 8 million per year. At that price, I could stand giving an old hero one last chance.

3.) Corey Hart

2013 was a completely lost season for Hart, who didn't play a single game due to knee surgeries. The 31 year old has since expressed his strong interest in returning to the Brewers in 2014, and even though Milwaukee didn't extend a qualifying offer Hart's way, they too have expressed an interest in working out a deal with the 2 time all star later this offseason. Signing Hart could, due to this information, become pretty difficult, as well as pretty expensive. But, for what it's worth, Hart could be a good fit with the Minnesota Twins. Hart has experience playing first base and could fill that currently empty position in Minnesota. And, assuming he hasn't lost too much of his old self coming off of injury, he could add a big time bat to the middle of a Twins lineup in need of some power. Hart has been extremely consistent over the course of his 9 year career, where he has hit .276, reached base at a rate of .334, and slugged just under .500. He also has registered more than 25 Homers in each of his last 3 seasons in the big leagues, including 31 in 2010, and 30 the last time he played in 2012.



4.) Kendrys Morales

Morales is one of the most intriguing power bats that the free agent market offers to American League teams. A switch hitter who can hit for average and power and could potentially play an extended role at first base. His offensive numbers are very similar to the aforementioned Corey Hart, however Morales offers more value by being a switch hitter, being a year younger, and by not carrying a looming "I had multiple knee surgeries and haven't played in a full year" sign around. He has spent the majority of his recent career in the DH slot, but has also spent a decent amount of time at first base. The Mariners offered  Morales a $14.1 million, one year qualifying offer on Monday, but it is expected to be declined. The former Angel has expressed interest in testing the free agent market, and will likely look for a multi-year deal worth quite a bit of cheddar. The price could be hefty, but Morales could make an instant impact on a number of team's lineups in 2014, including the Twins.



5.) Kevin Youkilis

Youk had a pretty disappointing 2013 campaign, playing only 28 games for the Yankees after back surgery on a herniated disc ended his season. He has reportedly not experienced any setbacks since, and is expected to be ready well by spring training. Youk made $12 million last season, but shouldn't be in line to make nearly that much from potential suitors in 2014, and might not even be considered a legitimate starting option by the majority of clubs. His value has decreased as his offensive statistics have steadily declined over the last 5 years, and decreased even further now because of injury concerns. However, I don't think Youk's career is over just yet. He obviously isn't quite the player he used to be, but the present day "Greek God of Walks" could still bring a lot of value with him to the right ball club. He has the experience, and the ability to play both third or first base, as well as DH. With this, he could fit well into a Minnesota system that likes to platoon Joe Mauer, Chris Parmalee, and even others in and out of first base. Though it isn't quite at the rate it used to be, Youk still gets on base an awful lot. He's been hit by a pitch double digit times in his last 7 full seasons, including 17 times in 2012, and has a career On-Base percentage of .382. A solid veteran presence at 34 years old, Youkilis is still very capable of hitting around .250, slugging over .400, and will jack 20 or more Homers a season with consistency.

5 Free Agent Starting Pitchers the Twins should target for 2014

As I promised, I dug a little deeper into my list of starting pitchers set to become Free Agents this offseason. I eliminated most pitchers with club options for 2014 (with the exception of Ubaldo Jiminez and a few others) as they will likely be exercised. This labels two of the most intriguing options here, James Shields and Jon Lester, as untouchable. Regardless, I was able to weed through plenty of others and was able to come up with a handful of great talent that could truly make the 2014 Twins pitching staff a horse of a different color. Here we go.

1.) Ervin Santana

His last name alone is intriguing to Twins fans! Can you imagine another Santana, sporting a mid 50s jersey number, dominating the rubber while fitted in Twins pinstripes?! Santana was obviously electrifying last season sporting a 3.24 ERA over 32 starts and 211 Innings Pitched. He had a WHIP of only 1.142, struck out 7 per 9 innings pitched, and walked only 2 also per 9 innings. The right-hander does show some small doubt and inconsistency over his career. In 8 mostly solid seasons with the Angels, Santana mixed in 3 rough years with an end of the season ERA greater than 5 (2007,2009, and 2012). The period of inconsistency in 2012, however, is an island among an ocean of success in recent years and was due mostly to an outlying amount of home runs allowed. I don't see a situation like this reoccurring in Santana's future (especially if he would be pitching half of his games at the pitcher friendly Target Field). Another factor that erases any sort of Santana "Red Flag" is his success pitching against AL Central Division opponents. His first season in Kansas City was his first away from LA and was statistically the most efficient of his career. In 10 starts against AL Central opponents in 2013 (including the Twins) Santana sported a 1.98 ERA, a 0.867 WHIP, held opponents to a batting average of .187 and struck out more than 8 per 9 innings. Ervin Santana will likely be looking for a more long-term deal this off-season and will come at a hefty price, but one the Twins could afford and could benefit greatly from.



2.) Matt Garza

Another sight for sore eyes, would be this guy back in a Twins jersey. In one of the worst trades the Twins have made in a long time, we sent this guy and Jason Bartlett to Tampa Bay for Brendan Harris and Delmon Young (neither of whom made a lasting impression in Minnesota). Since that trade Garza has posted an ERA lower than 3.98 and a WHIP lower than 1.262  in all six of his seasons with the Rays, Cubs, and Rangers. Garza has outstanding stuff and as excited as the Rangers were to have him last season, they aren't near as excited at the idea of retaining him next year after a few hiccups at the end of last season. This means Garza will be very available, but will draw tons of interest and will not be cheap. He's a low risk/high reward guy that would be well worth the investment for Minnesota, even a decently long term one.



3.) Dan Haren

This pick comes with a little bias. I've wanted to see Dan Haren as a Minnesota Twin since he made his first big splash in the Majors. And yes, some of that longing and Haren's early effectiveness makes this somewhat of a "homer pick." I really do, however, think that the more recent Dan Haren is still very valuable in a different skin, and should be a name the Twins take a serious look at this offseason. Haren cost a lot lost year, and a lot more before that, but after two mediocre to average seasons his stock is starting to fall, and potential suitors could see a few dollars knocked off his asking price. As a whole, Haren's stats last year don't look too sexy, but his progression throughout the year does. Haren steadily improved all season and actually showed more glimpses than not of his old self in the second half of 2013. In that second half Haren posted a 3.52 ERA, a 1.017 WHIP, and an opponents batting average of .226 in 13 starts. And even further, Haren posted a 2.89 ERA in his last 5 starts of 2013! He still carries some dominant stuff in his arsenal and does an excellent job locating every pitch (he has a career 1.9 BB/9 inn and 7.6 K/9 inn). If that isn't enough for you, Haren has had a healthy and consistent workload throwing 584 innings in the last 3 seasons and has posted a 2.93 ERA in 17 starts against AL Central opponents (NOT including the Twins) in that same time period.



4.) Phil Hughes

I do not think that Phil Hughes could or will be the ace of any pitching staff anytime soon. I do think he is a lot more talented than he has shown over the more recent part of his career. He is a good, young, middle-of-the-rotation type of pitcher stuck in an inopportune position. A predominantly fly-ball pitcher stuck in the confines of homer happy Yankee Stadium, Hughes posted a 6.32 ERA and allowed 17 Home Runs in 17 starts at Yankee Stadium last season. This opposed to a 3.88 ERA and 7 Homers allowed in 13 starts away from the park he called home in 2013. This holds true for his career as well. Hughes has allowed 76 career homers at Yankee Stadium in 95 starts, and only 36 homers away from it in 87 career starts. Hughes is only 28 years old and has a lot of career left. But, with his stock beginning to fall he could really use a change of scenery. The Minnesota Twins and pitcher friendly Target Field would gladly welcome him in 2014.



5.) Jeff Karstens

After missing the entire 2013 season and having surgery on his Rotator Cuff and Labrum, Jeff Karstens will be available for next to nothing this offseason, but could prove to be worth much more than that. Karstens was highly touted in the Pirates organization as early as three years ago. In 2011 Karstens had a 3.43 ERA, a 1.209 WHIP, and walked only 1.7 batters per 9 innings pitched in 26 starts. In 2012 he saw 15 starts and turned in a 3.89 ERA, a 1.176 WHIP, and improved his control even further walking only 1.6 per 9 innings. Shoulder surgery is difficult for a Major Leage pitcher to overcome. but Karstens is expected to be ready to go by Spring Training 2014. The competition for Karstens will not be thick, and a Minor League contract offer could be enough to bag a starter that has already proved to be worth much more than that in the past. A risk is obviously present, but at the specified price it's one worth taking for the Twins.



Dark Horses
Scott Kazmir: an experienced lefty that has shown greatness in the past, and effectiveness last season. He should come at a relatively cheap price and heck, if the Twins sign him just to keep him from pitching against them it might be worth it. In 5 starts against Minnesota last year Kazmir was 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA, recording 36 Strikeouts over 31 Innings!

Paul Maholm: the left-handed version of Kevin Correia

2014 Potential Free Agent Starting Pitchers

This season's World Series is nearing its close with Boston leading the Cardinals 3 games to 2 and heading back to, home sweet home, Fenway Park. That means that Free Agent season is right around the corner. In my past posts I've underlined one of the Twins major problems over the last few years as its lack of effort and success in the Free Agency market. It is extremely important to build a good strong foundation at Minor League Affiliates, and I truly believe in some of the talent the Target Field pitching mound could see in a couple of seasons. However, I also fully believe the Twins could put an AL Central Division Champion roster on the field in 2014!

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Every area of the organization could use some work, but the major area of importance and need is at starting pitching. The Twins Starters last season combined for only 871 Innings Pitched, a 5.26 ERA, and an opponents batting average of .305! All ranking worst in the MLB by relatively large margins(The next worst Starter ERA was 4.81 and the next worst opponents average was .281!). There are a couple of promising pitching prospects in the Twins' farm system, but as mentioned before, most are more than a full season away from making an appearance in the big leagues. 

At first glance this offseason's crop of Free Agent pitching looks somewhat old and undesirable. But dig a little deeper, and you can truly find some much needed gems. Below, I created a chart to show every potential 2014 Free Agent starting pitcher(that was worth mentioning) with a few credentials to accompany them. Within this list I can find a number of both Short and Longer Term solutions to a Twins starting rotation that is nearing desperation. (my rhymes are sick)

A (*) following the name of a listed player indicates a vesting, mutual, or team option in place that could potentially bring that player back to its current team in 2014. Players are listed in order of their 2013 salary from highest to lowest. Accompanying them is their age, the team they played for in 2013, their Innings Pitched, ERA, WHIP, and Quality Start Percentage totals for the 2013 season. For those unaware, a Quality Start is one in which the pitcher throws for 6 or more innings and allows 3 or less earned runs. The Quality Start Percentage divides the number of Quality Starts by the total number of starts made by the pitcher. The column titled "Stock" gives an estimation showing whether that players stock among the rest of the league has gone Up, Down, or stayed relatively the same. This rating, along with each player's past salary could give teams a rough estimation of what the player's true cost this offseason could be. 

If the price is right, their are plenty of great pitching options available to the Major League public this offseason. And, with roughly, only over $50 million in committed payroll for 2014, the Minnesota Twins have the opportunity to make a pretty big splash in the upcoming Free Agent market. In my upcoming few posts I'll look to cover a handful of potential starters on this list that I believe would look great in a Minnesota Twins jersey next year. And, further down the line, will look at another handful of potential position players that could add to the Twins' lineup depth. 

What the 2013 Minnesota Twins could have looked like

I remember watching this year's All Star Game in New York and thinking to myself, "JEESH there are a lot of former Twins here!" Every time I would scroll through the league leaders in statistics I would catch myself saying, "I remember that guy!". And, once again this postseason I've seen David Ortiz dominating opposing pitchers in the World Series, looking to rejoin far too many former Twins in the World Champion's club.

I mentioned in my last post that I was looking forward to covering the Twins' historical trade and free agency woes and a very flawed mindset they have when it comes to the two. That post, is this post. Now I know that hindsight is always 20/20, but after several on top of several mistakes, being accompanied by only a small handful of triumphs, I would think that something would start sinking in. Whether it be for the purpose of seeking younger prospects with future potential greatness, the unwillingness to pay a player the amount of money they're seeking, the idiotic explanation of a player not matching the current system in place, or just a complete misunderstanding of player value, the Minnesota Twins have let a small army of superstars out into the baseball world to find other places of employment. So many in fact, I constructed two charts below to show the team's notable trade and free agency history over the past 10 years (listed in no particular order). Also note that a player name highlighted in red indicates that player is still on the Twins' current roster.

Remember those guys? Its almost kind of shocking when you take a closer look at the caliber of players the organization has let go and compare them to the players it has welcomed aboard ship. Also shocking is the amount of players traded for and signed that were shortly after given up on and re-traded away or let go to free agency. (Note: Deolis Guerra remains in the Twins organization but is not highlighted in red. He pitched 3 games for the team's rookie affiliate in 2013.) Only one trade, where AJ Piersynski was sent to San Francisco in exchange for Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan, provided the organization with any sustained success whatsoever. And, the free agent signings are for the most part, almost laughable. When looking at all the opportunity squandered and all the talent above, I got to thinking, "You can almost make an All-Star Team out of this group!" So I did. Below I produced a table that combines a number of these players above that were sent away by the Twins, with a handful of current Twins to produce an optimal "What could have been" 2013 Minnesota Twins lineup. Just to put everything into perspective.

That's right. 9 All-Stars. The 2nd highest Team Batting Average and Slugging Percentage in the AL, and the 3rd highest On-Base Percentage. 2nd lowest Team ERA, 3rd lowest Team WHIP, and the fewest BB/9 in the AL. And more than likely, a team that would still be battling deep into the postseason. You'll notice that a realistic and move-sensitive roster is put together here. For example, both Carlos Gomez and JJ Hardy could not be placed on this team as, although they were both former Twins, the two were traded for each other, and could never realistically played on the same team. The amount of Games played by hitters equals 165.6 which very closely compares to the 162 game season the team would play. And, the 5,513 At-Bats and 6076 Plate Appearances further prove that this lineup would be fully plausible. Again, the Games Started total of 165 coming from the 5 starting pitchers and 1 spot-starter, Sam Deduno, closely relates to the 162 game season and the 1427 total Innings Pitched is also extremely comparable to the actual Innings Pitched totals from teams around the league. Also something that I found surprising, the optimal team's total payroll equals $141,054,339. This total seems substantial to what Twins fans are used to, and is almost double the amount of the teams actual 2013 payroll of roughly $76,012,500. However, the $141 million payroll would still rank outside the top 5 highest payrolls in the League, it would still be roughly $87 million less than what the 2013 New York Yankees paid their roster, and it would really only be one major "max-like" contract above the Twins 2011 payroll of $112,737,000 just 2 years ago!

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Yes, Captain Hindsight is always right, but hopefully if information like this can do anything, it can show the Twins exactly what its past mistakes have been and the exact failures they have resulted in. The organization needs to reevaluate its determination of player value and overall talent, and needs to eliminate any fear of spending too much money. With this off-season's player departures, the Team can easily afford to spend $60 million in the upcoming free agent game. Mistakes are okay as long as they are used as learning opportunities and changes are then made. Hopefully this Twins Organization can take the necessary steps to turn our, What could have been's into present and future success.

Brian Dozier: A Current and Future Bright Spot

Let's be honest, this past season was a complete disaster for Twins fans. It's never a positive sign when the top off-season headline concerning an organization is whether or not to fire its manager. When I was originally developing this blog I went to google's image search to try and find a few pictures I could use within my posts. Things are so gloomy right now that when I searched for "Twins Celebrating" I had to cycle through roughly 5 pages before I found an image that wasn't of a birthday party for young identical twin siblings, or of something meant only for eyes 18 years or older. Yeah times are rough right now. However, as the overall season was an utter failure again, not everything about this years' team followed suit. Two major Minnesota Twin bright spots stood out this season as something to be proud of and something to look forward to. The first, was the tremendous, year-long performance by a young and relatively inexpensive Twins bullpen. The second, was Second Basemen Brian Dozier.

As the season progressed and the Twins continued to fall further and further behind in the standings, Brian Dozier began to climb the rankings in nearly every statistical category. He gave a quiet and mostly unproductive lineup a little shred of light each game. In fact, its hard to argue there was a better second basemen in the American League the second half of the 2013 season. Dozier lagged behind in the more popular measures of success among players, batting average and on-base percentage, but still reached a very content .253 and .313 respectively. Dozier was able to express his tremendous value to the team in several other areas, with probably the most prevalent area being power. Following last year's All Star Game, Dozier led all American League second basemen in Home Runs, Extra-Base Hits and Isolated Power, he ranked 2nd during the same time frame in Total Bases, Doubles, and Slugging Percentage, and also had the 3rd most RBI. Dozier's power surge was a sight for sore eyes among Twins fans last season, but also came as a surprise to most. Many people close to the game seemed quick to say "Where is this coming from?!" and failed to acknowledge that 2013 was the 26 year-old's first full season in the big leagues. Trust me, Dozier's power, and more importantly his overall value to the Minnesota Twins is very real and something that I hope to see in years to come.

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Quite frankly, as a Twins fan, I am sick and tired of the word "potential". I have seen far too many quality players sent off to different organizations to make room for young prospects with great "potential". I look forward to covering this entire issue in a future post, but currently want to narrow my efforts. I fear that Brian Dozier is one of those quality players, and that Twins second base prospect Eddie Rosario is one of those youngsters dangerously smothered in that three syllable word, potential. Don't get me wrong, Rosario is already a very talented second basemen, with enough (cringe) potential to be considered very valuable. He can hit for average and power, to all parts of the field, and has great speed. But Dozier has already surpassed the point of potential, and has now proved that he is truly capable of becoming one of the most valuable second basemen in baseball, and in a very underrated fashion. Some teams need Robinson Cano at second base, the Twins need Brian Dozier and a lot of starting pitching. In Eddie Rosario, I see a great opportunity to have both. Instead of always being that team that trades talent for potential, Lets try the other side for once! Think of it this way; Brian Dozier is a hundred dollar bill, and Eddie Rosario is a twenty dollar savings bond. There's a serious chance that in the future that savings bond could be worth more than 100 bucks, but its going to take a long damn time, it might not even get there, and if it does get there it likely won't end up being worth very much more anyway. And now what if I said that you could trade that savings bond to a savvy investor for another hundred dollar bill!? One that can pitch!

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All analogies aside, Brian Dozier is a great player. Still only 26 years old, Dozier established himself last season as a serious talent at second base. He is patient, seeing 4.17 pitches per plate appearance in 2013, ranking 2nd in the AL among second basemen. He has great power, hitting 18 home runs and 55 extra base hits last year, both also ranking 2nd among AL second basemen. He pummels left-handed pitching, batting .324 in 2013 and leading all AL second basemen in Slugging percentage and .OPS. He is clutch when it counts, batting .315 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs, also ranking 2nd in the AL among second basemen. And, something that I have ridiculously failed to mention yet, Dozier has arguably the best glove at second base in the Majors. He finished 2013 with only 6 errors, a fielding percentage of .992, and led the entire position in Assists, Total Chances, and Range Factor. So yes, on top of everything else, he's a gold glove waiting to happen. The Twins have second base covered, and if Eddie Rosario is not dealt to a new organization in exchange for an improvement in starting pitching this off-season upper management will be making a large mistake. Minnesota already has a future at second base, Brian Dozier.

Ron Gardenhire's Contract Extension a Good Idea?

The Minnesota Twins’ front office has made a number of questionable decisions over the past several seasons. Yesterday they made another one. After being listed as on the hot seat during this past season and taking tons of grief from fans and media outlets, Ron Gardenhire accepted a 2 year contract extension and will return as the team’s manager in 2014. Minnesota is a notoriously loyal organization when it comes to its coaching staff, so this decision doesn’t come with too much shock. After all, only 1 manager in MLB history has returned to coach a team for 2 full seasons following 3 consecutive seasons of 90 or more loses, and it was Gardenhire’s predecessor, Tom Kelly!  Gardy is a loveable figure in the dugout and has earned his young popularity as the man behind the lineup card, winning 6 AL Central Division titles in his first 9 seasons with the Twins. But now Gardy finds himself as the lead character in a new chapter of Twins baseball, and the last three seasons have been the worst such stretch in the organization’s history. So, was the right decision made here? History, if it chooses to repeat itself, would say not. And history does have a nasty habit of doing just that.

I mentioned above that Gardenhire isn’t the first manager to go through a situation similar to the present one, and isn’t even the first Twins manager to do so. Since 1945, 8 MLB managers have been asked to return to their teams, even following 3 consecutive seasons of 90 or more losses. Below is a table listing these 8 managers, and how they fared in their season of mercy.

Name	Team	Years	Following Yr Record	Notes
Zack Taylor	Browns	1948-50	52-102	Let go following the 1951 season
Casey Stengel	Mets	1962-64	50-112	Fired 95 games into 1965 season
Preston Gomez	Padres	1969-71	58-95	Fired 11 games into 1972 season
Darrell Johnson	Mariners	1977-79	59-103	Fired 104 games into 1980 season
Joe Torre	Mets	1978-80	41-62*	Let go following  the 1981 season
Tom Kelly	Twins	1997-99	69-93	Retired following 2001 season**
Felipe Alou	Expos	1998-00	68-94	Fired 53 games into 2001 season
Larry Rothschild	Rays	1998-00	62-100	Fired 14 games into 2001 season

*The 1981 season was split into two halves and shortened due to the player’s strike.

**Tom Kelly also managed the Twins in 2001 going 85-77. He retired at the end of the season.

As you can see, of the 8 managers above, 5 were fired at some point during the following season. And all 8 of their teams failed miserably in their attempts at providing manager redemption, with the most successful season leading to a dismal 69 wins. Zack Taylor and Joe Torre were both shown the door at the end of their unsuccessful seasons, and again, Tom Kelly was the only manager of the 8 allowed to leave the team on his own accord after two seasons. History shows here that Gardy’s chances of being successful as a manager of the Minnesota Twins are slim to none, and his future with the organization could be ending very soon!

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Now wait a minute, this shouldn’t necessarily mean the final pounding of the gavel on Gardenhire’s career. He has, after all, proved time and time again to be an excellent manager with a great baseball mind. Gardy is the only manager in the game’s history to win 6 division titles in his first 9 seasons with a team. The man knows what he’s doing. Twins President David St. Peter was even quoted in the organization’s press conference yesterday saying, “Ron Gardenhire did not get stupid overnight. He was the (American League) Manager of the Year in 2010.” This is something that could be said about a number of the names in the table above as well. Tom Kelly won 2 World Series titles with the Twins before his plunge, and Casey Stengel is one of the best managers of all time, having won 7 World Series’ and 10 American League Championships with the Yankees before his dismal tenure with the Mets. And even still, Joe Torre was able to turn around the slow start to his managerial career with the Mets and eventually win 4 World Series trophies and 6 American League Pennants, also with the New York Yankees. Maybe we’ve got a true gem here in Gardenhire and a little bit of patience is in order, or perhaps a change of scenery could’ve done both the Twins and Gardy a big favor.

Another “Not So Fast!” claim presents itself clearly in the poor front office decisions made by both past and current management staff. Former General Manager Bill Smith made countless terrible decisions and Terry Ryan hasn’t exactly done the greatest job picking up the pieces, leaving Gardy with little talent to work with. Having arguably the best farm system in baseball doesn’t mean much to a struggling big-league manager, except that you may never see an opportunity to coach them in the future. The name of the game is longevity, and you’ve got to be able to make the most out of what you’ve got in front of you. But let’s be honest, some of the lineups that Gardenhire has been forced to put out lately resemble the “Mutants from Table 9!” Coaching is extremely important, but so is having talent on the field, and that’s the real issue here, not Gardenhire.

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No matter who managed the Twins the last 3 seasons, they would’ve seen roughly the same result. There is really just not much that can be done with the recent teams that have been forced out onto the field and told to perform. And, nothing is going to change if the same procedures keep taking place and the same players continue to represent the team. It starts in the GM’s office. However, that doesn’t mean that a managerial change couldn’t help add a hint of lime to the equation either. The world of baseball is a harsh reality where “If you lose the last game of the season, nobody gives a shit!” Personally, I would’ve made the move to bring in a new manager and offer Gardy some sort of managerial position within the front office. It may be well too early yet, but I would love to see former Twin and current manager of the Single A affiliate Fort Myers Miracle, Doug Mientkiewicz mentioned as a possible future candidate for Gardenhire’s position.

With all of that being said, I love Ron Gardenhire and truly believe in his knowledge of the game and his experience with success. I admire his fire and passion for the game and can’t really feel that the Twins are in too poor of hands as long as Gardy is at the helm. I wish him the absolute best, and hope to see the necessary off-season moves come through to give him a fighting chance at beating the odds against him. History often repeats itself, but our history hasn't quite been written yet.