2014 Potential Free Agent Starting Pitchers

This season's World Series is nearing its close with Boston leading the Cardinals 3 games to 2 and heading back to, home sweet home, Fenway Park. That means that Free Agent season is right around the corner. In my past posts I've underlined one of the Twins major problems over the last few years as its lack of effort and success in the Free Agency market. It is extremely important to build a good strong foundation at Minor League Affiliates, and I truly believe in some of the talent the Target Field pitching mound could see in a couple of seasons. However, I also fully believe the Twins could put an AL Central Division Champion roster on the field in 2014!

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Every area of the organization could use some work, but the major area of importance and need is at starting pitching. The Twins Starters last season combined for only 871 Innings Pitched, a 5.26 ERA, and an opponents batting average of .305! All ranking worst in the MLB by relatively large margins(The next worst Starter ERA was 4.81 and the next worst opponents average was .281!). There are a couple of promising pitching prospects in the Twins' farm system, but as mentioned before, most are more than a full season away from making an appearance in the big leagues. 

At first glance this offseason's crop of Free Agent pitching looks somewhat old and undesirable. But dig a little deeper, and you can truly find some much needed gems. Below, I created a chart to show every potential 2014 Free Agent starting pitcher(that was worth mentioning) with a few credentials to accompany them. Within this list I can find a number of both Short and Longer Term solutions to a Twins starting rotation that is nearing desperation. (my rhymes are sick)

A (*) following the name of a listed player indicates a vesting, mutual, or team option in place that could potentially bring that player back to its current team in 2014. Players are listed in order of their 2013 salary from highest to lowest. Accompanying them is their age, the team they played for in 2013, their Innings Pitched, ERA, WHIP, and Quality Start Percentage totals for the 2013 season. For those unaware, a Quality Start is one in which the pitcher throws for 6 or more innings and allows 3 or less earned runs. The Quality Start Percentage divides the number of Quality Starts by the total number of starts made by the pitcher. The column titled "Stock" gives an estimation showing whether that players stock among the rest of the league has gone Up, Down, or stayed relatively the same. This rating, along with each player's past salary could give teams a rough estimation of what the player's true cost this offseason could be. 

If the price is right, their are plenty of great pitching options available to the Major League public this offseason. And, with roughly, only over $50 million in committed payroll for 2014, the Minnesota Twins have the opportunity to make a pretty big splash in the upcoming Free Agent market. In my upcoming few posts I'll look to cover a handful of potential starters on this list that I believe would look great in a Minnesota Twins jersey next year. And, further down the line, will look at another handful of potential position players that could add to the Twins' lineup depth. 

What the 2013 Minnesota Twins could have looked like

I remember watching this year's All Star Game in New York and thinking to myself, "JEESH there are a lot of former Twins here!" Every time I would scroll through the league leaders in statistics I would catch myself saying, "I remember that guy!". And, once again this postseason I've seen David Ortiz dominating opposing pitchers in the World Series, looking to rejoin far too many former Twins in the World Champion's club.

I mentioned in my last post that I was looking forward to covering the Twins' historical trade and free agency woes and a very flawed mindset they have when it comes to the two. That post, is this post. Now I know that hindsight is always 20/20, but after several on top of several mistakes, being accompanied by only a small handful of triumphs, I would think that something would start sinking in. Whether it be for the purpose of seeking younger prospects with future potential greatness, the unwillingness to pay a player the amount of money they're seeking, the idiotic explanation of a player not matching the current system in place, or just a complete misunderstanding of player value, the Minnesota Twins have let a small army of superstars out into the baseball world to find other places of employment. So many in fact, I constructed two charts below to show the team's notable trade and free agency history over the past 10 years (listed in no particular order). Also note that a player name highlighted in red indicates that player is still on the Twins' current roster.

Remember those guys? Its almost kind of shocking when you take a closer look at the caliber of players the organization has let go and compare them to the players it has welcomed aboard ship. Also shocking is the amount of players traded for and signed that were shortly after given up on and re-traded away or let go to free agency. (Note: Deolis Guerra remains in the Twins organization but is not highlighted in red. He pitched 3 games for the team's rookie affiliate in 2013.) Only one trade, where AJ Piersynski was sent to San Francisco in exchange for Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan, provided the organization with any sustained success whatsoever. And, the free agent signings are for the most part, almost laughable. When looking at all the opportunity squandered and all the talent above, I got to thinking, "You can almost make an All-Star Team out of this group!" So I did. Below I produced a table that combines a number of these players above that were sent away by the Twins, with a handful of current Twins to produce an optimal "What could have been" 2013 Minnesota Twins lineup. Just to put everything into perspective.

That's right. 9 All-Stars. The 2nd highest Team Batting Average and Slugging Percentage in the AL, and the 3rd highest On-Base Percentage. 2nd lowest Team ERA, 3rd lowest Team WHIP, and the fewest BB/9 in the AL. And more than likely, a team that would still be battling deep into the postseason. You'll notice that a realistic and move-sensitive roster is put together here. For example, both Carlos Gomez and JJ Hardy could not be placed on this team as, although they were both former Twins, the two were traded for each other, and could never realistically played on the same team. The amount of Games played by hitters equals 165.6 which very closely compares to the 162 game season the team would play. And, the 5,513 At-Bats and 6076 Plate Appearances further prove that this lineup would be fully plausible. Again, the Games Started total of 165 coming from the 5 starting pitchers and 1 spot-starter, Sam Deduno, closely relates to the 162 game season and the 1427 total Innings Pitched is also extremely comparable to the actual Innings Pitched totals from teams around the league. Also something that I found surprising, the optimal team's total payroll equals $141,054,339. This total seems substantial to what Twins fans are used to, and is almost double the amount of the teams actual 2013 payroll of roughly $76,012,500. However, the $141 million payroll would still rank outside the top 5 highest payrolls in the League, it would still be roughly $87 million less than what the 2013 New York Yankees paid their roster, and it would really only be one major "max-like" contract above the Twins 2011 payroll of $112,737,000 just 2 years ago!

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Yes, Captain Hindsight is always right, but hopefully if information like this can do anything, it can show the Twins exactly what its past mistakes have been and the exact failures they have resulted in. The organization needs to reevaluate its determination of player value and overall talent, and needs to eliminate any fear of spending too much money. With this off-season's player departures, the Team can easily afford to spend $60 million in the upcoming free agent game. Mistakes are okay as long as they are used as learning opportunities and changes are then made. Hopefully this Twins Organization can take the necessary steps to turn our, What could have been's into present and future success.

Brian Dozier: A Current and Future Bright Spot

Let's be honest, this past season was a complete disaster for Twins fans. It's never a positive sign when the top off-season headline concerning an organization is whether or not to fire its manager. When I was originally developing this blog I went to google's image search to try and find a few pictures I could use within my posts. Things are so gloomy right now that when I searched for "Twins Celebrating" I had to cycle through roughly 5 pages before I found an image that wasn't of a birthday party for young identical twin siblings, or of something meant only for eyes 18 years or older. Yeah times are rough right now. However, as the overall season was an utter failure again, not everything about this years' team followed suit. Two major Minnesota Twin bright spots stood out this season as something to be proud of and something to look forward to. The first, was the tremendous, year-long performance by a young and relatively inexpensive Twins bullpen. The second, was Second Basemen Brian Dozier.

As the season progressed and the Twins continued to fall further and further behind in the standings, Brian Dozier began to climb the rankings in nearly every statistical category. He gave a quiet and mostly unproductive lineup a little shred of light each game. In fact, its hard to argue there was a better second basemen in the American League the second half of the 2013 season. Dozier lagged behind in the more popular measures of success among players, batting average and on-base percentage, but still reached a very content .253 and .313 respectively. Dozier was able to express his tremendous value to the team in several other areas, with probably the most prevalent area being power. Following last year's All Star Game, Dozier led all American League second basemen in Home Runs, Extra-Base Hits and Isolated Power, he ranked 2nd during the same time frame in Total Bases, Doubles, and Slugging Percentage, and also had the 3rd most RBI. Dozier's power surge was a sight for sore eyes among Twins fans last season, but also came as a surprise to most. Many people close to the game seemed quick to say "Where is this coming from?!" and failed to acknowledge that 2013 was the 26 year-old's first full season in the big leagues. Trust me, Dozier's power, and more importantly his overall value to the Minnesota Twins is very real and something that I hope to see in years to come.

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Quite frankly, as a Twins fan, I am sick and tired of the word "potential". I have seen far too many quality players sent off to different organizations to make room for young prospects with great "potential". I look forward to covering this entire issue in a future post, but currently want to narrow my efforts. I fear that Brian Dozier is one of those quality players, and that Twins second base prospect Eddie Rosario is one of those youngsters dangerously smothered in that three syllable word, potential. Don't get me wrong, Rosario is already a very talented second basemen, with enough (cringe) potential to be considered very valuable. He can hit for average and power, to all parts of the field, and has great speed. But Dozier has already surpassed the point of potential, and has now proved that he is truly capable of becoming one of the most valuable second basemen in baseball, and in a very underrated fashion. Some teams need Robinson Cano at second base, the Twins need Brian Dozier and a lot of starting pitching. In Eddie Rosario, I see a great opportunity to have both. Instead of always being that team that trades talent for potential, Lets try the other side for once! Think of it this way; Brian Dozier is a hundred dollar bill, and Eddie Rosario is a twenty dollar savings bond. There's a serious chance that in the future that savings bond could be worth more than 100 bucks, but its going to take a long damn time, it might not even get there, and if it does get there it likely won't end up being worth very much more anyway. And now what if I said that you could trade that savings bond to a savvy investor for another hundred dollar bill!? One that can pitch!

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All analogies aside, Brian Dozier is a great player. Still only 26 years old, Dozier established himself last season as a serious talent at second base. He is patient, seeing 4.17 pitches per plate appearance in 2013, ranking 2nd in the AL among second basemen. He has great power, hitting 18 home runs and 55 extra base hits last year, both also ranking 2nd among AL second basemen. He pummels left-handed pitching, batting .324 in 2013 and leading all AL second basemen in Slugging percentage and .OPS. He is clutch when it counts, batting .315 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs, also ranking 2nd in the AL among second basemen. And, something that I have ridiculously failed to mention yet, Dozier has arguably the best glove at second base in the Majors. He finished 2013 with only 6 errors, a fielding percentage of .992, and led the entire position in Assists, Total Chances, and Range Factor. So yes, on top of everything else, he's a gold glove waiting to happen. The Twins have second base covered, and if Eddie Rosario is not dealt to a new organization in exchange for an improvement in starting pitching this off-season upper management will be making a large mistake. Minnesota already has a future at second base, Brian Dozier.

Ron Gardenhire's Contract Extension a Good Idea?

The Minnesota Twins’ front office has made a number of questionable decisions over the past several seasons. Yesterday they made another one. After being listed as on the hot seat during this past season and taking tons of grief from fans and media outlets, Ron Gardenhire accepted a 2 year contract extension and will return as the team’s manager in 2014. Minnesota is a notoriously loyal organization when it comes to its coaching staff, so this decision doesn’t come with too much shock. After all, only 1 manager in MLB history has returned to coach a team for 2 full seasons following 3 consecutive seasons of 90 or more loses, and it was Gardenhire’s predecessor, Tom Kelly!  Gardy is a loveable figure in the dugout and has earned his young popularity as the man behind the lineup card, winning 6 AL Central Division titles in his first 9 seasons with the Twins. But now Gardy finds himself as the lead character in a new chapter of Twins baseball, and the last three seasons have been the worst such stretch in the organization’s history. So, was the right decision made here? History, if it chooses to repeat itself, would say not. And history does have a nasty habit of doing just that.

I mentioned above that Gardenhire isn’t the first manager to go through a situation similar to the present one, and isn’t even the first Twins manager to do so. Since 1945, 8 MLB managers have been asked to return to their teams, even following 3 consecutive seasons of 90 or more losses. Below is a table listing these 8 managers, and how they fared in their season of mercy.

Name	Team	Years	Following Yr Record	Notes
Zack Taylor	Browns	1948-50	52-102	Let go following the 1951 season
Casey Stengel	Mets	1962-64	50-112	Fired 95 games into 1965 season
Preston Gomez	Padres	1969-71	58-95	Fired 11 games into 1972 season
Darrell Johnson	Mariners	1977-79	59-103	Fired 104 games into 1980 season
Joe Torre	Mets	1978-80	41-62*	Let go following  the 1981 season
Tom Kelly	Twins	1997-99	69-93	Retired following 2001 season**
Felipe Alou	Expos	1998-00	68-94	Fired 53 games into 2001 season
Larry Rothschild	Rays	1998-00	62-100	Fired 14 games into 2001 season

*The 1981 season was split into two halves and shortened due to the player’s strike.

**Tom Kelly also managed the Twins in 2001 going 85-77. He retired at the end of the season.

As you can see, of the 8 managers above, 5 were fired at some point during the following season. And all 8 of their teams failed miserably in their attempts at providing manager redemption, with the most successful season leading to a dismal 69 wins. Zack Taylor and Joe Torre were both shown the door at the end of their unsuccessful seasons, and again, Tom Kelly was the only manager of the 8 allowed to leave the team on his own accord after two seasons. History shows here that Gardy’s chances of being successful as a manager of the Minnesota Twins are slim to none, and his future with the organization could be ending very soon!

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Now wait a minute, this shouldn’t necessarily mean the final pounding of the gavel on Gardenhire’s career. He has, after all, proved time and time again to be an excellent manager with a great baseball mind. Gardy is the only manager in the game’s history to win 6 division titles in his first 9 seasons with a team. The man knows what he’s doing. Twins President David St. Peter was even quoted in the organization’s press conference yesterday saying, “Ron Gardenhire did not get stupid overnight. He was the (American League) Manager of the Year in 2010.” This is something that could be said about a number of the names in the table above as well. Tom Kelly won 2 World Series titles with the Twins before his plunge, and Casey Stengel is one of the best managers of all time, having won 7 World Series’ and 10 American League Championships with the Yankees before his dismal tenure with the Mets. And even still, Joe Torre was able to turn around the slow start to his managerial career with the Mets and eventually win 4 World Series trophies and 6 American League Pennants, also with the New York Yankees. Maybe we’ve got a true gem here in Gardenhire and a little bit of patience is in order, or perhaps a change of scenery could’ve done both the Twins and Gardy a big favor.

Another “Not So Fast!” claim presents itself clearly in the poor front office decisions made by both past and current management staff. Former General Manager Bill Smith made countless terrible decisions and Terry Ryan hasn’t exactly done the greatest job picking up the pieces, leaving Gardy with little talent to work with. Having arguably the best farm system in baseball doesn’t mean much to a struggling big-league manager, except that you may never see an opportunity to coach them in the future. The name of the game is longevity, and you’ve got to be able to make the most out of what you’ve got in front of you. But let’s be honest, some of the lineups that Gardenhire has been forced to put out lately resemble the “Mutants from Table 9!” Coaching is extremely important, but so is having talent on the field, and that’s the real issue here, not Gardenhire.

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No matter who managed the Twins the last 3 seasons, they would’ve seen roughly the same result. There is really just not much that can be done with the recent teams that have been forced out onto the field and told to perform. And, nothing is going to change if the same procedures keep taking place and the same players continue to represent the team. It starts in the GM’s office. However, that doesn’t mean that a managerial change couldn’t help add a hint of lime to the equation either. The world of baseball is a harsh reality where “If you lose the last game of the season, nobody gives a shit!” Personally, I would’ve made the move to bring in a new manager and offer Gardy some sort of managerial position within the front office. It may be well too early yet, but I would love to see former Twin and current manager of the Single A affiliate Fort Myers Miracle, Doug Mientkiewicz mentioned as a possible future candidate for Gardenhire’s position.

With all of that being said, I love Ron Gardenhire and truly believe in his knowledge of the game and his experience with success. I admire his fire and passion for the game and can’t really feel that the Twins are in too poor of hands as long as Gardy is at the helm. I wish him the absolute best, and hope to see the necessary off-season moves come through to give him a fighting chance at beating the odds against him. History often repeats itself, but our history hasn't quite been written yet.

HOLD UP, HEAR ME OUT...

Please don’t be alarmed or offended by the somewhat confusing title above, and please give me a chance to explain. First off, I definitely do not hate the Minnesota Twins in any way, shape, or form. I love the Twins, I love Target Field, and I love baseball.

"How can you not be romantic about baseball?" This, a quote from the 2012 film Moneyball, is one of my new favorite phrases. The sport of baseball is a perfect combination of so many different things that fans and players can’t help but fall in love with. There is such an expertise to the forming together of a team, a lineup, a pitching rotation, a bullpen, etc. There are so many important details to be found hiding in any of the endless statistics used to build these teams. There are precise strategic maneuvers regarding matchups, splits, weather, or even what time of day a team’s next game takes place. And yet, even with all the attention that gets placed on the numbers, and all these specific chess piece moves, the game still carries with it a huge sense of randomness. A broken bat base hit, a bobbled relay throw, a bad hop, or a gust of wind on any given day can take every statistic on the board and flush it down the drain. It’s this very sense of randomness that makes every true fan optimistic at the beginning of each new season. Your team might have lost 150 games last year and lost its best three players to free agency, but somewhere in the numbers, and somewhere in your gut, you know this is the year. The movie Moneyball admittedly helped give birth to the idea that now became my blog. Every baseball fan loves to play manager in their head. We would love to have the scorecard for a night and put our best judged lineup down, or be in the draft room helping decide which prospects should be given a chance on our teams. The story behind Moneyball gives this dream a whole new world of thought with endless possibilities. Now owners and managers are looking at their teams from a different angle, and players possess value that never existed before.

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I am a Twins fan, as diehard as they come, and have intently watched my team since as long as I can remember. In grade school and little league I remember most kids my age would try to be like Sammy Sosa or Ken Griffey Jr, while I was proud to announce Doug Mientkiewicz as my favorite player, closely followed by Jacque Jones, Brad Radke, Torii, and the rest of the crew. I have seen teams take back to back to back Central Division Championships, and even compete for a pennant. I get to hear from my father, but can’t remember the Twins’ last World Series Championship as I was barely a year old at the time, but they were there on top of the game at the beginning of my lifetime. And yet, more recently, I am about to witness back to back to back 60(something) win seasons. The once labeled, “Team that Saved Baseball” by ESPN the magazine is now the cellar of Major League Baseball, and I am determined to find out what went wrong, and hopefully do whatever I can to help fix it. So you see, this isn’t an extravagant troll’s webpage where any and all can come to spit on the Minnesota Twins, and it certainly isn’t a place to come and poke fun at the team’s fans. After all, that’s all that I am.. a fan. 

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And so, from here on this fan will attempt to make you laugh, make you angry, make you think about stats and players in a way you never have before, and hopefully make you feel a little more optimistic about the future of the Minnesota Twins. Because with a little tweaking (yes tweaking, not twerking), I believe the future is very bright... 

"How can you not be romantic about baseball?"